Beat the NFL sportsbooks

Take a break. The dog days of summer have come and gone.

The thermometers may not agree, but sports bettors should know that the best action of the summer is fast approaching.

Bettors usually tire of the monotony of the Major League Baseball regular season by the end of July. Then, like a cool sea breeze, the NFL blesses bored gamblers with a breath of fresh air.

NFL training camps opened for the season on July 27. Over the next two weeks, the teams begin a grueling schedule of curfews, diets, and two days to get in shape for the upcoming season. In the following month, all 32 NFL teams will work to make the playoffs.

The NFL begins its preseason this week. This time of year is undoubtedly the best kept secret in sports betting.

Most NFL fans know that very little can be learned from preseason games. The primary purpose of scrimmage-style contests is for coaches to conduct starting lineup evaluations. Last year’s starters are only on the field for a few snaps, mainly to avoid rusting for the pending season. While they see their only bench time of the season, reserve players and rookies get the most snaps, hoping their performance will earn them a roster spot.

For the first (and only) time in the NFL season, linemakers have no advantage. They are blindly creating lines, forced to set the spread as if the games were regular season contests.

The reason why they are in this situation is simple. No consideration can be made on their end about how reserve players and rookies play. How can bookies create an accurate line when players they haven’t seen play are taking the snapshots?

Example. When the St. Louis Rams play the Kansas City Chiefs on August 23, the spread and over/under will be set assuming the KC defense (one of the WORST five in 2003) is lining up for every play against the seniors. flights from St.Louis. airstrike, which ranked third in 2003.

The spread of this contest could favor St. Louis (for this example, we’ll say yes). The Rams’ three-headed offensive monster (QB Marc Bulger; receivers Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt) probably won’t play past halftime. Also, KC’s one-man offensive machine, running back Priest Holmes, should see more bench than grass. These two events make the game completely open. Your guess at the outcome is as good as the bookies’.

The second half should see the field full of untested players. Who knows where the game will go from there? Will it be a low scoring contest or a barn? No one can be totally sure. This is great news for punters and bad news for bookies.

“The NFL preseason is easily the most unpredictable time for overseas sportsbooks,” said Anthony Wayne, EWINNER.com Director of Marketing. “Very often, the field is full of players who have similar abilities. Without great playmakers on the field, how are the linemakers supposed to know who is going to be the favorite?”

Below are several pre-season contests that could prove highly beneficial to the sports bettor. Strike while the iron is hot. (All distribution statistics courtesy of Gold Sheet):

New York Giants at Carolina Panthers, 8/19, 8 pm on FOX: New York finished a dismal 4-12 last year and couldn’t cover the gap in its last eight games. However, they have been recharged by acquiring quarterback Kurt Warner as a mentor. rookie quarterback Eli Manning, and have a new coach, former Jaguars leader Tom Coughlin. Coughlin is a surefire preseason bet, with a 16-8-1 exhibition record against the spread.

With the exception of its offensive line, Carolina has kept most of the lineup that won the NFC championship last season. The Panthers have covered the spread in their last five preseason contests, but four of them were underdogs. During the 2003 regular season, they went 3-9 when favored.

Bet on: Coughlin and his G-men, especially if Carolina is the favorite.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Baltimore Ravens, 8/12, 8 pm on ESPN: After an offseason of drastic change, Atlanta has nothing to do but improve after ending 2003 with the worst defense in the league. New coach Jim Mora, Jr. is going to put some youth in his booth, and with Michael Vick healthy, the 2004 Falcons should play more like the 2002 playoff team. During Vick’s first two seasons, Atlanta had a record 7-1 during show season; last season, they were 0-4 (Vick broke his leg in Atlanta’s second preseason game).

Baltimore should be the beast of the AFC North this year, as well as a Super Bowl contender from week one. Quarterback Kyle Boller will have a year of apprenticeship, and his best running offense (thanks to marathoner HB Jamal Lewis) will be complemented by newly acquired wide receiver Kevin Johnson. This team should improve on last season’s 10-6 record, as its storied defense remains one of the fiercest in the NFL. Head coach Brian Billick is 11-4 in exhibition games against the spread, and is 6-2 as an underdog. Last year, the Ravens were just 1-3.

Bet on: Atlanta if Vick is healthy. Keep an eye out for Baltimore, especially if they’re the underdog.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles, 8/26, 8 pm on ESPN: Pittsburgh has a lot to bounce back from last season; mainly injuries. Their offense was only imposing on paper, thanks to injuries to the offensive line and a lack of carries for “The Bus” (Jerome Bettis), who averaged only 3.3 yards per touch. Head coach Bill Cowher has become a perennial preseason choke artist. His team was 0-4 heading into the regular season last year, and they’ve also struggled to cover the differential in past seasons (0-4 the past two seasons at home versus differential).

Philadelphia is again the favorite to go to the Super Bowl in the NFC. They addressed their two biggest needs this offseason, adding wide receiver Terrell Owens and defensive end Jevon Kearse. Eagles also have a tendency to choke. Unfortunately, the preseason is no different. In his career, coach Andy Reid is 2-7 in exhibitions when he is a home favorite.

Bet on: Philadelphia. These games do not count. They are less likely to screw it up.

Tennessee Titans at Dallas Cowboys, 8/30, 8 pm on ABC: The Titans took a big cut in salary (and talent) in the offseason, but they’ll still find a way to contend for the playoffs thanks to ironman QB Steve McNair. Tennessee’s 13 draft picks will see a ton of plays before the season begins as this team tries to freeze into one solid unit. A virtual roadblock, the Titans covered all four games of the last preseason against the spread, and in the last four schedules they are 7-1 in road exhibitions. As an underdog they are more of a safe bet, a perfect 6-0.

Eddie George, a Titan until July, now runs for Dallas. George should have a big chip on his shoulder after being one of Tennessee’s salary-cap underdogs. The 2004 Cowboys will also feature wide receiver Keyshawn Johnson and rookie QB/retired minor leaguer Drew Henson. Henson will see a lot of snaps at the shows to get rid of the diamond rust on him. Dallas went 10-6 last season, which is the best record of Bill Parcell’s first season as head coach. However, quality opponents (teams with winning records) went 4-2 against them last season, 3-1 against the spread.

Bet on: Titans. With their preseason record and Dallas’ tendency to lose to good teams, this should be a sure win.

For more information on NFL betting, plus links to preferred online sportsbooks, check out Bet-Online-Sports.

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