Free agency has changed much of the NFL draft projections. Additionally, scouting combinations changed the fortunes of many prospects, dropping some and moving others up the draft boards.
Although there will be many changes between now and April 29, Todd Lokken, president of Strategic Fantasy Football, has taken a look at the top ten picks in this year’s draft. “Many players coming out of school still have the opportunity to improve their position through individual training, while others might end up doing poorly in the same training,” says Lokken. So, with a month to go, here’s a look at the top 10 picks:
1) Houston Texans: Reggie Bush, RB–USC. There’s no way Houston changes this pick, and Bush has been the target since the middle of the 2005 college season.
2) New Orleans Saints: D’Brickashaw Ferguson, OT–Virginia. “The Saints need a tackle, and Ferguson is the best on the board right now,” says Lokken. However, he won’t be surprised if the Saints trade this pick and try to put Ferguson in the top 10 later.
3) Tennessee Titans: Matt Leinart, QB–USC. Lokken says, “If Leinart had been out last year, he would have been the first choice.” Number 3 isn’t too bad though, especially with Steve McNair on the downside of his career.
4) New York Jets: Vince Young, QB–Texas. “Okay, so the Jets traded for Patrick Ramsey. It’s not a long-term solution,” Lokken says. Look to the Jets to take a QB this year, and imagine Vince Young in the Big Apple!
5) Green Bay Packers: AJ Hawk, LB — Ohio State. The Packers have had a shoddy defense for some time. Those in Packer country know that the Mike Sherman era allowed the Packers to get worse each year on defense, so this pick is a great start to rebuilding the defense.
6) San Francisco 49ers: Vernon Davis, TE–Maryland. Since they traded top receiver Brandon Lloyd, the 49ers will work to surround Alex Smith with quality receivers, and Davis fills that role. “Look for it to have a fantastic impact in its first year,” says Lokken.
7) Oakland Raiders: Haloti Ngata, DT–Oregon. Oakland would clearly love a QB at this spot, but it’s doubtful Young or Leinart are still available. While Jay Cutler may be a possibility, Oakland is more likely to try to trade (possibly with New Orleans) to get a quarterback.
8) Buffalo Bills: Broderick Bunkley, DT–Florida State. While Buffalo would love to have Ngata, Oakland will get him before Buffalo does. “However, if Oakland moves up, Buffalo will almost certainly finish off Ngata,” says Lokken.
9) Detroit Lions: Michael Huff, DB–Texas. The Lions need defensive help, and Huff brings instant credibility to the NFL. This shouldn’t be a big surprise.
10) Arizona Cardinals: Jay Cutler, quarterback — Vanderbilt. While Dennis Green and the Cardinals in general have a history of upsetting the NFL draft, the current rumor mill suggests the Cardinals will go for a QB here. That rumor should ring true, as Cutler should be available.
“Free agency is still in full swing, and along with draft workouts, the first round, especially the top 5, is in tremendous flux,” Lokken says. “Look for a lot of things to change before April 29, and expect a lot of surprises even on draft day.”
Strategic Fantasy Football provides fantasy football analysis and strategy for fantasy football players. For more information, contact Todd Lokken at 847.985.8566.
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