While browsing the fantasy football chat forums, I came across a question that was causing a lot of debate among the analyst and the readers. Basically the reader asked if he should sit his QB instead of a different QB because his opponents had that team’s WR star. His feeling was that if the WR star had a great game, he would erase the QB’s stats or even exceed his QB’s stats (since a touchdown to a WR is worth more than a touchdown thrown by a QB). So his hopes were to start with his alternate quarterback, lean against his main QB’s team, and hope for the “maximum difference” between his opponents’ WR and his alternate QB.

This strategy sparked a discussion with the analyst, who believed that you start your best possible lineup each week, no matter what your opponent has or is starting. The alignment of your opponents is not important until the games start, and you should never base your alignment on what your opponent has. If his starting QB is just that, his starter, it’s probably because he’s generally a better player (on paper at least) than the alternative. Yes, the star catcher will probably get a lot of keys, but that doesn’t mean the quarterback can’t pitch to his other receivers, or to his running backs. Or for that matter, we don’t know if the star catcher will end up hurting himself early in the game. Therefore, since we as spectators do not have a direct result on how a fantasy football game turns out, we have to start with the best possible lineup to hope for the best.

Although both sides of the argument have their positive points, I would have to side with the analyst for the most part. I’ll show you some examples of why I think this is true, but I’ll also make an argument for when it might be worth building your lineup based on your opponents.

Argument 1 – Start the best possible team

Example 1 – Week 7 in the NFL – Team A has Peyton Manning (IND) and Brett Favre (MIN) as its quarterbacks. Team B has Reggie Wayne (IND) as WR. Team A’s opinion is that he should start Brett Favre instead of Peyton Manning because Manning will probably throw Wayne a lot. Logic and the analysts argue, however, that the Indianapolis matchup is much better, because it is against the Rams winless (at the time), while the Vikings are playing good defense on the Steelers. Therefore, analysts believe that Manning should start on Favre.

The game statistics were:

Manning: 23/35, 235 yards, 3 TD
Wayne – 7 receptions, 83 yards, 1 TD
Favre – 33/50, 334 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT

Using a standard fantasy football scoring system (like ESPN’s), the points for the week would be as follows:

Manning = 21 points
Wayne = 14 points
Favre = 11 points

If Team A had started with Favre, they would have lost 3 points, while if they had started with Manning, they would have gone up 7 points.

In this case, starting Manning (who had the best matchup and had been a top-ranked QB up to this point in the season) proved to be a better start. It is true that there will always be exceptions. The highest ranked QB will not always play better. But again, since we as spectators don’t have any results in the way the player plays, you have to start the best QB in the best matchup to have the best chance of winning. In a case like this, the alignment of your opponents was not important because you would have scored more points than your opponent by following what logic told you.

Argument 2 – Observing your opponent’s alignment

The following is a case where I feel like looking at your opponents lineup when making your own might be to your advantage. Team A has 2 equally ranked WRs (averaging the same fantasy points over the course of the season, they have equally ranked matchups). It’s basically a coin flip about who will have a better game on that given weekend. Team B is starting a defense that is playing one of Team A’s WRs. In this case, should Team A start that WR? They don’t have to, no, but the benefits of starting it are better. If that WR has a great game, Team B’s defensive points will go down and cause a big change in the points earned by those two teams. If the WR doesn’t have a lot of catches, Team B’s defense won’t earn more points just for stopping the WR (unless they have a fumble), but will get the standard points for allowing small yards / points.

This is a case where I would say that looking at your opponent’s lineup could work to your advantage. However, in most cases, a player will always have a slightly better ranking or pairing and it would be worth starting on the alternative, so you should be playing with the best team possible in that given week. Fantasy football is about picking the best players and the best matchups, and if you don’t give yourself the best chance of winning, you probably won’t. It’s as simple as that.