Did you see the Rams flounder at home on Sunday in a 38-28 loss to the Cardinals? The game went over the total, which isn’t a surprise since the Rams have the fourth-worst defense in the NFL. The Rams have a high-octane offense with plenty of weapons in the running and passing game, but the defense has been poor the past two years under coordinator Larry Marmie, who replaced the popular Lovie Smith. It’s obvious that Marmie doesn’t have Smith’s defensive talents. 70% of the Rams’ games have gone over the total this season (7-3). It’s those kinds of team strengths and weaknesses (poor defense, good offense) that tipsters look for when looking at totals. The Rams are also 4-1 overall at home on their slippery artificial carpet.
Speaking of Lovie Smith, he has since become the head coach of the Chicago Bears. He has a lot of defensive talent and limited offensive options along with a rookie quarterback. Not surprisingly, Smith prefers to win games with his defense and play conservatively on offense with a rookie QB. The Bears are 8-2 under overall this season. Do you think it’s just a trend? Smith executed the same formula a year ago when Chicago was under 10-6 overall, meaning they are under 18-8 since he became Bears coach.
Handicap totals have to do with the value of the line, but also with the styles a football team plays. Another factor to consider as we head into the final stretch of the NFL season is the weather. Northern cities like Chicago, New York, Boston, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh are getting cooler this time of year. It is essential to check the weather conditions on match day. Cold weather is harder on violations, as are icy winds and snow, which is also something that will become more common.
The Colts’ improved defense was one of the big surprises of the NFL season. But keep in mind that they haven’t been as strong of late, giving up 20-plus points in 4 of the last 5 games. The Bengals caught them for close to 500 yards on Sunday. After starting the season 5-0 under the total, the Colts’ offense has started to click, while the defense has started to bend more and Indy is 5-0 over the last five games. The Bengals/Colts shooting on Sunday exceeded the total in the first half!
You could also classify the Cleveland Browns in the Chicago Bears category: hard-working offense, tough defense. Head coach Romeo Crennel has a great defensive mind, he won three of the last four Super Bowls as the Patriots’ defensive coordinator. The Browns improved defensively under him, going 8-2 under total. And the Patriots miss Crennel. Coupled with his absence and numerous secondary injuries, the Patriots are 6-3 overall, with a good passing game but a suddenly poor secondary.
Injuries can also significantly change a team. The NY Jets have an incredibly anemic offense rotating four QBs this season. The Jets are 4-2 short on the road total, where the offense is averaging just 7 points per game! The Steelers are eager for Ben Roethlisberger to recover and realize Pittsburgh is 5-0 short on the road total with a tough defense and a conservative offense without Big Ben. Stats, styles, training and weather all contribute to excesses and deficiencies.
